The MLB best home run bets stubbed their toe again on Saturday after both home run props were correct on Friday. Sadly, Brandon Lowe and Owen Caissie didn’t hit home runs on Saturday. The season record for home run bets now sits at 15-52, with three no-bets for players who didn’t play on the day their home run props were touted.
As the record indicates, picking home run props is challenging, and losses are inevitable. They’re priced as long-shot bets, though. So, despite the many incorrect picks, anyone who has bet $100 on each of the suggested MLB home run bets has profited $892.
Monday is another opportunity to add to the season’s profit. Two teammates in a dreamy matchup, with favorable park factors, have the most appealing home run bets tonight.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
James Wood (Washington Nationals – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+250) at FanDuel Sportsbook
James Wood is launching the ball this year, with 23 home runs, a 10.7-degree launch angle, 22.0% line-drive rate, 39.9% fly-ball rate and 25.8% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) in 91 games and 425 plate appearances in 2026. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has hit 16 homers in 277 plate appearances against righties, 13 in 204 plate appearances at home and 10 in 151 plate appearances against righties at home.
Wood’s overall batted-ball data is also jaw-dropping. Among 251 qualified hitters in 2026, Wood is third in barrels per plate appearance rate (12.1%), first in barrels per batted-ball event rate (22.9%), first in hard-hit rate (60.5%), first in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (100.7 mph), tied for eighth in maximum exit velocity (116.3 mph) and sixth in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (43.5%).
Wood has a mouthwatering matchup tonight. Mike Burrows has allowed 19 home runs at 1.89 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 17 appearances (16 starts) this year, coughing up at least one homer in 12 starts, and coughing up multiple homers in seven starts.
Burrows hasn’t had any answers for left-handed batters, allowing 13 homers, 2.40 HR/9, a 22.6% line-drive rate, 43.5% fly-ball rate and 17.8% HR/FB to 227 left-handed batters faced this season.
The park factors are also a plus. Nationals Park has a park factor of 108 for home runs since 2025, ranking 12th highest. Wood should use his immense power to hit a home run against homer-prone Burrows in Wood’s homer-friendly ballpark.
Luis Garcia (Washington Nationals – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+446) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Luis Garcia is treated to the same drool-inducing matchup and favorable park factors. Garcia is having a career year at the plate, hitting his 19th home run of the 2026 season on Sunday, setting a new career high.
Garcia has hit 17 of his 19 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026, smashing nine homers at home, all against right-handed pitching at home. He’s also white-hot. Garcia has hit 14 home runs in his past 97 plate appearances.
The 26-year-old has stellar batted-ball data this year. Among 251 qualified hitters in 2026, Garcia is tied for 44th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.3%), tied for 87th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (10.3%), 51st in hard-hit rate (46.8%), tied for 41st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.7 mph), 34th in maximum exit velocity (114.0 mph) and tied for 148th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.0%). Garcia can lift the ball against homer-prone Burrows and add to his career-high home run total with another tonight.
