The cold streak for MLB best home run bets came to a close on Friday. Both JJ Bleday and Ben Rice hit home runs, making their home run props, at +400 and +328 odds, respectively, winning wagers.
The season’s record for MLB best home run bets sits at 10-34, with two no-bets for players who weren’t in the starting lineup on the days their home run bets were suggested. Despite the lousy record, bettors who wagered $100 on each of the suggested home run props at the touted odds are up $753 on the year.
Home run bets are challenging bets to hit, hence the record. Yet, they’re priced as long-shot bets, and making calculated decisions on home run props can yield a profit. There will be more dry spells at some point, but the following two home run bets are compelling selections based on the likelihood of happening and the betting odds, and they can add to the season’s profits.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Jo Adell (Los Angeles Angels – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+340) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jo Adell isn’t having a great year at the plate, with nine homers in 249 plate appearances. Still, he’s a lefty killer. Adell has crushed 21 home runs in 279 plate appearances against lefties since 2024, with an 18.3% line-drive rate, 46.2% fly-ball rate, 23.1% home runs per fly-ball rate (HR/FB), 39.6% pull rate and 38.1% hard-hit rate.
The slugging outfielder’s batted-ball data is mixed. Among 257 qualified batters this season, Adell is tied for 105th in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.2%), 113th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (8.7%), tied for 56th in hard-hit rate (47.1%), tied for 61st in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.3 mph), tied for 15th in maximum exit velocity (114.9 mph), tied for 171st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (32.0%) and tied for the 33rd-steepest launch angle (19.3 degrees). Adell’s raw power is still elite. He hasn’t done his best work squaring the ball up and barreling it, but he can put a charge into the baseball with the best of them.
Adell’s matchup tonight is optimal. Kyle Freeland’s 2.55 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) this season is the highest among tonight’s probable starting pitchers and projected bulk relievers. The 33-year-old lefty has allowed 12 homers across 10 appearances (nine starts), permitting at least one home run in six of his appearances, including allowing multiple homers in four of those turns. Freeland has surrendered five homers over his last two starts and 11 over his last six.
Freeland has also allowed 22 homers at 1.74 HR/9 in 114 innings on the road since last season. He hasn’t just been a victim of pitching his home games at Coors Field. The veteran lefty is also homer-prone against right-handed batters, allowing 31 home runs at 1.73 HR/9 to 722 right-handed batters since last season.
Adell’s matchup against Colorado’s bullpen is also a plus. They have the eighth-highest HR/9 allowed (1.13) in 2026. Adell will also get a lift from the park factors. Angel Stadium’s 105 park factor for homers is MLB’s 12th-highest mark since 2025. Adell should take advantage of all the factors working in his favor tonight and launch a home run at +340 odds.
Mike Trout (Los Angeles Angels – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+319) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Mike Trout will benefit from the same cushy matchups and homer-friendly park factors tonight as Adell. Trout doesn’t boast the same dominance over lefties as Adell does over recent years, but his six homers, 14.3% line-drive rate, 46.9% fly-ball rate, 13.0% HR/FB, 37.8% pull rate and 38.8% hard-hit rate in 188 plate appearances against southpaws since 2024 weren’t bad.
Trout is also having a monstrous season at the plate, with 14 homers in 266 plate appearances in 2026. The outfielder’s batted-ball data is also pristine. Among qualified hitters this year, Trout is 10th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.5%), fifth in barrels per batted-ball event rate (20.8%), tied for 35th in hard-hit rate (48.6%), tied for 48th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.6 mph), tied for 21st in maximum exit velocity (114.6 mph), tied for 120th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (34.0%) and has the 21st-steepest launch angle (20.8 degrees).
Trout’s +319 odds to hit a home run aren’t particularly long. Nevertheless, they’re inviting odds against homer-prone Freeland.
