A +325 home run from Ben Rice on Monday night stopped the skid for the MLB best home run bets at seven missed home run props. Sadly, Heliot Ramos didn’t deliver a home run. The season’s ledger for best home run bets sits at 8-28, and two no bets for players who didn’t start after splitting Monday night’s picks.
The season’s profits for the best home run bets are $625. As the disparity between the record and the profits for the home run props indicates, bettors don’t need to hit many home run bets to turn a tidy profit. At the same time, the record is a warning that hitting home run props is challenging, and cold streaks are a part of the equation.
Hopefully, tonight’s best home run bets will help swell the season’s profits. The following two players have the most enticing mix of wagering odds to hit a homer and the likelihood of accomplishing the task.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
JJ Bleday (Cincinnati Reds – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+393) at DraftKings Sportsbook
JJ Bleday hit a career-high 20 home runs in 159 games and 642 plate appearances for the Athletics in 2024 before playing in only 98 games and logging just 344 plate appearances in 2025. Still, Bleday hit 14 home runs in 2025, a pace of one homer per 24.6 plate appearances, even better than his pace of one homer per 32.1 plate appearances in 2024. The left-handed-hitting outfielder has ripped four homers in 56 plate appearances this year, a pace of one per 14 plate appearances.
Bleday has done substantial damage with the platoon advantage. In 835 plate appearances against righties since 2024, Bleday has hit 29 homers with a 17.3% line-drive rate, 48.9% fly-ball rate, 10.6% home runs per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 41.4% pull rate.
Bleday has blistering batted-ball data this year. Among 385 players with 25 batted-ball events in 2026, Bleday is 27th in barrels per plate appearance rate (10.7%), 31st in barrels per batted-ball event rate (15.8%), 14th in hard-hit rate (55.3%), tied for 62nd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.9 mph), tied for 50th in maximum exit velocity (112.6 mph) and first in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (52.6%).
Bleday has a cushy matchup and even better park factors for hitting a home run tonight. Jake Irvin has allowed five home runs in eight starts this year. The right-handed Irvin has been especially prone to homers against left-handed batters. The 567 left-handed batters who’ve faced Irvin since 2025 have crushed 29 home runs at 2.06 home runs per nine innings (HR/9). Washington’s relievers have also allowed the second-most home runs per nine innings (1.30) this season.
Irvin and Washington’s relievers will have their work cut out for them to keep the ball in the yard in Cincinnati. Great American Ball Park has had a 118 park factor for homers since 2025, the third-highest mark in MLB. Bleday is in a prime position to hit a home run tonight.
Kyle Stowers (Miami Marlins – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+375) at theScoreBet
Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed 1.85 HR/9 this season, the fourth-highest home run rate among tonight’s probable pitchers. The 25-year-old righty has yielded eight homers in eight starts this year, permitting at least one in seven of those turns. He’s also allowed 11 homers to 324 left-handed batters since last season.
Miami’s hitters have a golden opportunity to rip a home run tonight. Kyle Stowers has hit only one homer this year in 20 games and 82 plate appearances after hitting a career-high 25 home runs in 117 games and 457 plate appearances last season.
Stowers got off to a slow start this year. Stowers didn’t homer in his first 15 starts and recorded an out in a pinch-hit appearance on May 7, and his batted-ball data included a 7.7-degree launch angle, 90.0 mph average exit velocity, 2.3% barrel rate, 55.8% hard-hit rate, 14.0% line-drive rate, 58.1% ground-ball rate, 27.9% fly-ball rate, 0.0% home run per fly-ball rate and 55.8% pull rate. He was pulling worm burners and not barreling the ball.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder might be snapping out of his funk. In four games and on 10 batted-ball events since May 8, Stowers has a 28.0-degree launch angle, 94.3 mph average exit velocity, 10.0% barrel rate, 70.0% hard-hit rate, 30.0% line-drive rate, 20.0% ground-ball rate, 50.0% fly-ball rate, 20.0% home run per fly-ball rate and 60.0% pull rate. Stowers has found his fly-ball swing, and he’s hitting the ball hard. It was an admittedly small sample, but coupled with his power outburst last year, the home runs could start coming in bunches, starting tonight. Stowers is a legitimate threat to hit a home run tonight, making his home run prop an appealing wager at +375 odds.
