The MLB best home run bets are on a mini skid, as is the long-shot nature of betting home run props. After getting two more home run bets wrong on Friday, the season’s record is 7-25, with two no bets for players who didn’t start.
Home run props don’t have to hit at a high rate to yield a meaningful profit, though. Even with two more incorrect picks on Friday, the season’s profits sit at $600. All 30 MLB teams are in action today, creating a vast pool of home run props to select from. The following two players offer the best blend of betting odds and likelihood of hitting a home run.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+270) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Yordan Alvarez’s 13 home runs in 39 games and 172 plate appearances this year are tied for the third most in MLB this season. Additionally, based on the quality of his batted balls, he’s expected to have 15.4 home runs.
The 28-year-old slugger has scintillating batted-ball data this year. Among 272 qualified batters in 2026, Alvarez is fifth in barrels per plate appearance rate (13.4%), 13th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (18.4%), tied for 22nd in hard-hit rate (52.0%), tied for 40th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.3 mph), second in maximum exit velocity (117.8 mph) and seventh in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (45.6%).
Alvarez has hit seven home runs in 109 plate appearances against righties this year, launching four of them in 56 plate appearances against righties on the road. Alvarez has recorded 23 home runs in 351 plate appearances against righties on the road since 2024.
The veteran slugger has a decent matchup and outstanding park factors today. Chase Burns has allowed eight home runs at 1.69 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) to 190 left-handed batters since last year. Better yet, Great American Ball Park’s 119 park factor for homers is the third-highest mark in MLB since 2025. Alvarez’s home run prop’s betting odds are justifiably chalky, but it’s a worthwhile home run bet because he is likely to launch a homer into the seats today.
Liam Hicks (Miami Marlins – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+660) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Liam Hicks didn’t have an eye-catching home run profile as a prospect. Nevertheless, he’s tapped into his power in a breakout 2026 campaign.
Hicks slugged only six home runs in 119 games and 390 plate appearances in 2025, but he’s already ripped nine home runs in 36 games and 130 plate appearances in 2026. Eight of the nine home runs Hicks has hit this year have come in 104 plate appearances against righties, and 14 of his 15 career homers were hit in 428 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
Hicks has made tangible changes to his batted-ball profile to hit more home runs. He’s increased his average exit velocity from 84.6 mph to 88.0 mph, lifted his launch angle from 10.6 degrees to 12.3 degrees, increased his barrel rate from 3.5% to 7.5%, bumped his hard-hit rate from 27.7% to 40.6%, ticked up his fly-ball rate from 33.8% to 36.8% and pulled the ball at a 44.3% clip in 2026 after tallying a 39.0% pull rate in 2025, resulting in a surge from a 6.4% home runs per fly-ball (HR/FB) rate to 23.1%.
The left-handed-hitting Hicks has a golden opportunity to add to his home run ledger in a mouthwatering matchup today. Zack Littell’s 3.62 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) allowed this year is the most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Littell has allowed 13 home runs in seven appearances (five starts) this season, keeping the ball in the yard in two of those appearances but surrendering two, three, two, four and two homers in the other five appearances.
The Nationals also have a homer-prone bullpen. Washington’s relievers have allowed an MLB-high 1.80 HR/9 this season. Hicks should take advantage of his matchup against Littell and Washington’s lousy bullpen and make good on his home run prop by ripping a homer today.
