There is an argument that Aston Villa’s title challenge fell apart in the Emirates Stadium locker room in December.
The Birmingham side visited Arsenal in the best form of their modern history. Coming off a club-record 11-match winning streak in all competitions, Unai Emery’s team had climbed to third. They were closing in on the first-placed Gunners, and Arsenal knew it.
Just a few weeks prior, Villa had issued a serious statement of intent by beating Arsenal 2-1 in the reverse fixture. That last-minute goal, which decided the encounter, felt crucial in shaping the title race and carried extra weight going into the Emirates meeting.
And for the first 45 minutes of the game at the Emirates, there were warning signs that Villa might cause an upset again.
Ollie Watkins, returning to the starting lineup after a spell on the bench, repeatedly got in behind the Arsenal backline. However, his decision-making was not clinical, and Villa failed to capitalize on these opportunities.
It would prove costly as, in the second half, Arsenal scored after a mistake by Villa’s goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez.
Three further goals followed, and ultimately the brutal 4-1 defeat served as something of a wake-up call for fans who had begun to dream of a title challenge. The result marked a turning point, signaling a new phase for both the team and its supporters.
In the postgame, manager Unai Emery was keen to offer perspective on what had been achieved.
He said: “So, so proud of everything we are doing. So, so proud with the players, how we achieved, until now, 39 points, and how we are being ambitious and as well realistic.”
“We are realising every match we are playing, how we can exploit our potential and how we can get and set our target each match.”
“The league is the most difficult league in the world and there are 17 contenders at the beginning of the season to be in the top seven, and then we are trying always to beat some of them.”
“Until now, we are doing [that], but the challenge we have is clear: try to keep the same consistency, the same demands we have, being ambitious with our supporters… and of course try to support the players and give the players the energy we need.”
Given these shifting circumstances, Emery has found himself in an unusual situation at Villa, having to play down talk of a title challenge on several occasions.
He has tried to balance ambition and managing expectations.
After a shock defeat to the Premier League’s bottom club, Wolverhampton Wanderers, at the end of February, Emery admitted that while the title had once been a target, it was now unrealistic.
“We are losing the opportunity to win the title in the Premier League, two months ago we were competing with Arsenal and Manchester City, you were asking me about it,” he said after the game.
“Someone, even myself, may say ‘maybe we can’. Some supporters, maybe they were dreaming it. Now we are not with the possibility to fight for the Premier League, some can feel frustrated, even myself because I have my dreams.
“In September I was worried and the objective was to stay in the Premier League. In December I was so happy and excited to get the top-five position and achieve the Champions League.
“One month ago I was dreaming about maybe winning the Premier League. Now we are in the average to be in the top five.
“Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United, they are trying to get to us, for them it is a priority to get into the Champions League.”
As Emery suggested, it has truly been a rollercoaster ride for Villa fans. The season started poorly, only for the team to embark on a remarkable turn of form that spurred an unlikely title tilt, making the journey unpredictable from the outset.
However, it is important to remember that, as was repeatedly pointed out during the club’s remarkable winning streak, the underlying numbers indicated the side would eventually see a dip in form.
Pundits and analysts often noted the number of long-range efforts Villa scored, explaining these are statistically harder to convert based on the expected goals (xG) metric.
Such analysis understandably grated on players beating the stats.
One of them, Morgan Rogers, who rifled home many long-range goals, said it undermined a clear and deliberate tactic.
“It feels like a crime – I’m scoring and xG is putting me down,” he said.
“The manager always said to our midfielders last season, ‘I’m still waiting for goals from the edge of the box’.”
But as unexciting as it might be for fans, the truth is that those underlying numbers have recently caught up with Villa, underlining the importance of statistics to the bigger picture.
With this context in mind, the question now is whether the team has enough in them to keep itself at the top of the table.
