Saturday’s UFC 329 fight card features the return of former two-division UFC champion Conor McGregor. In the evening’s main event, McGregor faces ex-UFC featherweight titleholder Max Holloway in a rematch of their 2013 bout at 145 pounds. McGregor won that contest via unanimous decision. At UFC 329, McGregor and Holloway face off at the welterweight limit of 170 pounds. Below, we look at the betting odds, line movement, potential prop bets, and picks for the UFC 329 main card.
UFC 329 Fight Card Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway 2
When the betting odds opened for McGregor vs. Holloway 2, Holloway was a -345 favorite over the +250 McGregor. With money coming in on McGregor, those odds have tightened. Today, Holloway is listed at -235, while McGregor comes in at +190.
As for the percentage of bets on the fight, 85 percent have been in McGregor’s favor. The Irish fighter also has the majority of the handle at 73 percent.
The betting pick is for Holloway to defeat McGregor via knockout.
UFC 329 Fight Card Co-Main Event: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett
Opening odds for Benoit Saint Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett found Saint Denis listed at -160 and Pimblett at +125. Those lines have moved a bit. Today, Saint Denis is a -145 favorite, while Pimblett is a +120 underdog.
Most of the bets (87 percent) have come in on Pimblett, while 55 percent of the money has been on Saint Denis.
The betting pick is for Saint Denis to win via decision, but there is value in picking Pimblett to win via submission.
UFC 329 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Cory Sandhagen vs. Mario Bautista
Initial betting odds had Cory Sandhagen listed as the -150 favorite over Mario Bautista. As fight night nears, those odds have held. Today, Sandhagen is a -145 favorite over Bautista, who is a +115 underdog.
Despite being the underdog, Bautista has earned the majority of the bets (60 percent) and handle (81 percent).
The betting pick is a Sandhagen decision win.
UFC 329 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – Brandon Royval vs. Lone’er Kavanagh
Lone’er Kavanagh opened as a -200 favorite over the +160 Royval. Kavanagh is now a bigger betting favorite, checking in at -220, while Royval is the +180 betting underdog.
More people are wagering on the underdog in this fight, with 59 percent of the bets on Royval. However, 80 percent of the money is on Kavanagh.
The bet is Kavanagh to win via knockout.
UFC 329 Fight Card: Betting Odds, Line Movement And Predictions – King Green vs. Terrance McKinney
For the opening fight of the UFC 329 main card, Terrance McKinney was a -170 favorite over King Green, who was a +135 underdog when odds opened. With fight night approaching, McKinney checks in at -140 and Green at +115.
Green has earned the majority of the bets at 79 percent, while the handle is split evenly between the fighters.
The safe bet here is a knockout result. If you’re looking for a specific fighter to get that finish, I’d lean toward McKinney.
UFC 329 Fight Card: Most Bet Prop Bets
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO or DQ +250
Conor McGregor by Decision/Technical Decision +1200
Conor McGregor by Submission +2500
Paddy Pimblett by Submission +500
Max Holloway by KO/TKO or DQ -140
*Betting info via Bet MGM.
UFC 329: Conor McGregor’s Return
This is not the first time UFC CEO Dana White has announced a McGregor return to the cage. In April 2024, the UFC booked McGregor vs. Michael Chandler for the main event of UFC 303. A month later, White was happy with ticket sales for the event, saying UFC 303, which was booked for June 29, 2024 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, would be the first UFC card to have a live gate of $20 million or more.
Things fell apart in mid-June when McGregor withdrew from UFC 303 because of a broken toe. The card, which was headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between then-champion Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka, drew a live gate of $15,909,243.
UFC 306 became the first card to top the $20 million live gate number. That event, at Sphere in Las Vegas drew $21,829,245 on an attendance of 16,024.
The 37-year-old McGregor (22-6) is 1-3 since October 2018. His most recent win was a January 2020 TKO victory over Donald Cerrone. He is coming off back-to-back TKO losses to Dustin Poirier. McGregor’s most recent fight, his July 2021 loss to Poirier, came after a broken leg left McGregor unable to continue.
Also, since his last outing, McGregor was found liable for sexual assault in a civil case.
Holloway has fought eight times since McGregor’s last UFC outing, he is 5-3 in those bouts. Losing title fights to Charles Oliveira (symbolic BMF belt), Ilia Topuria (featherweight), and Alex Volkanovski (featherweight). The 34-year-old’s wins came against Yair Rodriguez, Arnold Allen, Korean Zombie, Justin Gaethje (for the BMF title), and Dustin Poirier (defense of the BMF title).
McGregor and Holloway first met at 145 pounds in August 2013. McGregor won that contest via decision.
We will have more on UFC 329 on fight night.
