Gamblers are furious about Polymarket’s refusal to pay out on bets that the US would “invade” Venezuela after American forces seized the country’s strongman ruler and first lady and hauled them to New York over the weekend.
Polymarket, the world’s largest online prediction market, determined that the US military operation did not count as an “invasion,” triggering fury from customers who wagered that Washington would send troops into the oil-rich nation, as MarketWatch first reported.
The wager in question asked, “Will the US invade Venezuela by…?” and provided several options for bettors to pick specific dates.
That bet was different from last week’s Polymarket wager about whether Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power — which fueled suspicions of insider trading after several recently created accounts won big payouts by voting “yes” against the long odds.
Users cried foul over Polymarket’s move to treat the military action against Venezuela as something other than an invasion.
“So it’s not an invasion because they did it quickly and not many people died?” one bettor wrote on Polymarket’s site.
Another called the platform “polyscam,”while others mocked the ruling by asking whether US forces used a “teleportation device” to kidnap Venezuela’s leadership.
“Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness,” one user fumed.
“Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognized meaning, and facts are simply ignored,” the person continued. “That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”
The backlash followed the dramatic US operation that captured Maduro and Venezuela’s first lady Cilia Flores and transported them to the States, where Maduro later appeared in a Manhattan courtroom to face federal charges including drug trafficking.
President Trump said afterward that the US would “run” Venezuela while negotiations continue.
Polymarket said on its website the weekend events marked a “snatch-and-extract” operation rather than an invasion, which it defined as “US military operations intended to establish control.”
The platform recently faced questions over suspiciously timed bets.
Three traders reportedly made a quick $620,000 profit betting that Maduro would be removed from office, prompting Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) to propose legislation banning government officials from trading on prediction markets.
The identity of the winning bettors remains unknown.
Presidential son Donald Trump Jr.’s private investment firm bought a stake in Polymarket last year, joining the company’s advisory board shortly before the platform received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate again in the US.
The CFTC did not respond to inquiries about the “invasion” bet.
The odds on that wager have barely budged. As of Monday, Polymarket showed just a 4% chance the US would invade Venezuela by Jan. 31.
The Post has sought comment from Polymarket.
