When Canada lost 2-1 to Switzerland on Wednesday night and settled for a second place finish in Group B, they knew the consequence would be having to travel to the United States for the World Cup knockout phase.
But they undeniably avoided the worst-case scenario when Group A played out later on Wednesday night.
With South Africa’s 1-0 upset of South Korea in Guadalupe, Mexico, Bafana Bafana locked up a surprise second-place finish in their group and a meeting with Canada in a Sunday round-of-32 match in Inglewood, Calif.
And while that won’t be an easy match for manager Jesse Marsch’s side, at least it won’t feel like an out-and-out away game. Which is exactly what would’ve materialized had it been South Korea taking the second group spot instead.
South Korea meets Southern California
The Korean community in Greater Los Angeles is quite literally the largest in the world outside of South Korean borders.
Multiple estimates place more than 300,000 residents with Korean connections in the region, and more than 500,000 in California as a whole, a reality that multiple LA pro sports teams have embraced.
It’s a big reason LAFC paid a reported $22 million transfer fee for the 33-year-old Son Heung-min last August, a man who just happens to be his nation’s most popular athlete for nine consecutive years, according to one South Korean poll.
Baseball’s Los Angeles Dodgers have done business with at least a half-dozen Korean players, beginning with trailblazing pitcher Park Chan-ho.
And those moves have brought commercial opportunities both with the Korean community in California and with corporations on the other side of the Pacific.
Much like the Persian population of California has bolstered Iran’s first two World Cup performances, it’s likely many of those 300,000 would’ve been willing to pay a premium to see their national team heroes in person and be a 12th man that Marsch’s Canada side had to combat.
If you want proof, just look at the ticket market. According to the website TicketData, the get-in price for Sunday’s match on the secondary market was $1,298 in the moments before Thapelo Maseko’s go-ahead goal. By the end of the night Eastern Time, it had crashed by more than a third and nearly $500 to $809.
The True Influence Of ‘Home’ Field
Crowds alone can’t make up for an underperforming team. And the performances from South Korea at the World Cup so far have been puzzling, given the talent at manager Hong Myung-bo’s disposal.
Further, true home-field advantage is not just about crowds. It’s also about travel and accomodations, things that are more equal in the standardized tournament environment of a World Cup than in a domestic league or World Cup qualifying.
Even so, data continuously shows that of all major team sports, soccer carries the largest home-field advantage. And much of that appears to be related to the psychological influence of crowds on referees and teams.
Additionally, the FIFA World Rankings still suggest the No. 28 Korea Republic is a solid level above No. 54 South Africa. So does the expected goals data, which shows the Koreans posted a +1.9 expected goals difference to South Africa’s -0.1.
When you combine those numbers with the reality of a far friendlier fan environment, there’s no question Canada got a major break, even if it’s bad form to admit you wanted to face one team over another.
Not Korea’s Worst Case
Meanwhile, although this was certainly a missed opportunity for Korea to play in an adventageous environment, they remain alive in the World Cup as the rest of the group stage plays out. The top eight third-place finishers will be the final eight teams in the 32 team bracket. Korea is currently fourth among third-place teams, although nine such teams still have a match to play.
If Korea does snag one of those eight spots, the most likely landing spot is a match against the winner of a currently wide-open Group G, played in Seattle.
While Seattle is more known for its Japanese community, its also boasts America’s fourth-largest Korean metro population at roughly 60,000, behind Los Angeles, New York and Washington. That could still provide a supportive dynamic against a team like Egypt, Belgium or Iran in the round of 32, and to a lesser extent in a potential round-of-16 fixture against the United States.