Government spending is unquestionably the biggest tax on freedom and progress of all. While Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jeff Bezos will work at all manner of tax rates, they quite simply cannot innovate without capital. Neither can those who stand on their broad shoulders.
The more that the federal government spends, the more that precious resources are shamefully consumed on wars, make-work programs, and backwards looking stabs at economic growth (meaning economic contraction) that shrink the amount of capital matched with the brilliant minds trying to invent the future. Government spending doesn’t boost growth as the slaves to GDP who populate the economics profession claim, it suffocates it.
Just the same, the national debt crossing the $40 trillion threshold is not news. To see why, just Google all the commentary on $40 trillion worth of federal debt before Treasury reached $40 trillion. This number was priced long ago, as have $45 trillion, $50 trillion, and well beyond that been priced. Markets don’t wait to price knowns, and rising federal debt is the most known truth in the world. Which means the $40 trillion national debt is the most priced number in the world.
What makes it comical is all the commentary about soaring yields that allegedly reflect investor fear about $40 trillion worth of debt, and beyond. The commentary isn’t remotely serious.
To see why, just contemplate the blinding market truth that yields on the 30-year Treasury resemble those of 2007. In 2007 the national debt was $7 trillion. Translated, the national debt is up nearly 6X since 2007, yet the interest rate on federal debt is at the same level.
It recalls that possibly twisted line about how “an interest rate is trust asleep.” Whether real or apocryphal, the deepest markets in the world are in no way revealing investor worry about Treasury’s ability to pay off the debt.
Still, there IS a very real crisis in the $40 trillion national debt. The problem is that you can’t put a face on a crisis that is invisible. Think about it.
The national debt is $40 trillion and investors just don’t care. What a horrifying signal, but once again not because the alarmists from the warring ideologies are all biting their nails.
The crisis is that there’s no debt crisis, and there’s no debt crisis because the holders of the most owned income streams in the world are more than confident that Treasury will have no problem paying off the debt. Get it?
If not, stop and contemplate the profound economic meaning reflected in $40 trillion worth of debt. The gigantic number is the markets telling us that the rich in the United States are overtaxed now, and that they’ll be massively overtaxed in the future. And no, it’s not a sign that tax rates are going up in the future.
Instead, the bet here is that rates will remain the same or decline, but tax rate stasis or decline will occur alongside skyrocketing wealth. Which means government tax revenues will soar in the future no matter the tax rate. How else could the U.S. have so much debt now?
What’s the crisis? Again, it’s hard to put a face on that which can’t be seen, but contemplate all the growth not happening, all the remarkable health, transportation, technological, and living standard advances not happening thanks to the rich enduring such enormous taxation. There’s your crisis, but again, how do you rile people up about what they can’t see?