It’s August. That means we have entered the stretch of the Atlantic hurricane season in which activity starts to ramp up. Thankfully, the basin has been quiet in recent weeks. Here are three reasons why.
El Niño
The lack of activity is not surprising if you have followed my writing in recent weeks or other meteorology colleagues. Experts at Colorado State University recently revised their seasonal prediction numbers to reflect the influence of what could end up being a “super” El Niño. “We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season,” wrote CSU forecasters on their website. “Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months…. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” they went on to say.
When the wind speed changes speed or direction with height that is called wind shear. Hurricanes do not like to form in such high shear environments. Current wind analysis shows significant wind shear throughout the basin.
Saharan Dust
Saharan dust is another factor suppressing activity. Current satellite products reveal a pretty significant plume of Saharan dust throughout the basin. “Saharan Air Layer—a mass of very dry, dusty air that forms over the Sahara Desert during the late spring, summer and early fall,” according to NOAA’s website. “The warmth, dryness, and strong winds associated with the Saharan Air Layer have been shown to suppress tropical cyclone (hurricane) formation and intensification,” the website continued.
Just Entering Peak Season
The last major reason is that we just entered the peak months for activity. Over the next few weeks, hurricane and tropical storm activity, on average, tend to build to an early September peak. Climatological records show that tropical cyclone activity has happened over the span of May to January, but the months of August, September, and October are typically the busiest time of the season.
Even though below-normal activity is predicted, it is not a guarantee, and it only takes one bad storm to change a community forever. Stay alert and have a plan if you live in hurricane-prone regions and inland.
