Wall Street bankers are set for a bumper payday with bonuses set to swell by as much as 35% after two fallow years, according to a new report.
If those predictions come to pass, it means a boost for downtown Manhattan’s hospitality industry that has already seen a bustling trade from New York’s well-heeled interns.
Compensation consultants Johnson Associates said debt under-writers would be the biggest winners with a 35% increase in their bonuses amid a predicted rebound in deal-making.
Bankers involved in equity underwriting are predicted to see their bonuses rise by 20% to 30%, the report said.
Average bonuses across the sector had dropped by 2% last year, according to a separate study by the New York State Comptroller.
The forecast comes after a string of strong second-quarter earnings performances from US and European banks — but cautions that projections can change, especially with turbulence in the economy and uncertainty over the upcoming election.
The Johnson analysis said the strong growth in debt issuance and IPO activity are the main reasons for higher bonuses as markets continued to recover from the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic.
Their report added that equity traders would see their compensation increase by 15%, while their fixed-income co-workers would see a rise of 10%.
At hedge funds, incentive compensation is likely to be up as much as 15%, helped by stronger performance across most strategies, according to estimates by Johnson Associates.
Wealth management and asset management executives are expected to receive 5% to 10% higher incentives this year, they said.
Alan Johnson, head of Johnson Associates, said the bonuses were not out of line because they “reflect” the state of the market right now.
“I think compensation in most of theses sectors has been driven by positive markets,” he told the Post. “Wall Street had a couple of difficult years. But it has certainty not got back to 2021 levels.”
But his firm warned that the predictions could be revised with ongoing uncertainty around the upcoming election and the Fed’s possible path toward lower interest rates.
Johnson himself downplayed talk of a possible recession and chance of a downturn that could hit bankers’ bonuses.
“I think we are going to have a good rest of the year,” Johnson said, pointing out that the US economy “has held up pretty up well so far” compared to other major Western nations.
In 2023, total Wall Street profits were up 1.8% to $26.6 billion but bonuses still shrunk slightly, according to the latest yearly estimates from the New York State Comptroller’s office.
Average bonuses fell 2% to $176,500 from $180,000 the year before, according to the same source.
In 2021, as the US and other Western countries emerged from widespread shutdowns, there was a flurry of trading and deal-making.
It saw the average bonus handed to Wall Street financiers rise to $240,300 that year, the State Comptroller figures said.
Megabucks bonuses contribute billions of dollars to New York state and city tax revenue, which is why local officials track the number so closely.
Bonuses are doled out at the end of the year and typically make up the majority of someone’s total compensation.
One in 11 people in New York is employed in the financial services industry, according to state figures.
