Steven Spielberg’s alien thriller Disclosure Day, starring Emily Blunt and Josh O’Connor, is overperforming at the box office, a factor that will likely play into Universal Pictures’ streaming plans when it is released on premium video on demand.
Disclosure Day — which marks Spielberg’s return to directing after helming his semi-autobiographical drama The Fabelmans in 2022 — earned an estimated $19 million on its opening day domestically on Friday (including ticket sales from Thursday previews). Deadline projects that the film will earn $44 million from 3,824 North American theaters through Sunday, $9 million above the trade publication’s pre-release projection of $35 million.
Other trades were a little bit more favorable in their pre-release projections, forecasting an opening weekend take of anywhere between $35 million to $50 million.
In Disclosure Day, cybersecurity expert Daniel Kellner (O’Connor) steals files confirming alien contact from the Wardex Corporation, an off-the-books non-governmental organization. Wardex’s head, Noah Scanlon (Colin Firth), is desperate to keep the information private, fearing it will lead to a chaotic reaction in a world already teetering on the brink of World War III.
Blunt plays Margaret Fairchild, a TV meteorologist who goes viral on the air when she starts uttering what Wardex interprets as alien dialect, leading to a connection with Daniel in his quest to disclose to the world the existence of extraterrestrials. Rated PG-13, Disclosure Day also stars Colman Domingo, Eve Hewson and Elizabeth Marvel.
In March, Universal Pictures changed its digital streaming release strategy, which, during the COVID-19 pandemic — as well as post-pandemic — gave the studio the option to release its films grossing under $50 million domestically on PVOD after 17 days. If the film made more than $50 million, the studio had the option for a PVOD release after 30 days.
Under the new strategy, however, Universal promises to keep all of its releases in theaters a minimum of five weekends, which amounts to about 31 to 32 days since most PVOD releases come out on Tuesdays. In 2027, Universal will increase its theatrical-to-PVOD window to just over seven weekends, or about 45 days.
Since the new strategy was put into play, two Universal Pictures releases — Reminders of Him and You, Me & Tuscany — were released on PVOD after five weekends in theaters domestically.However, another — the blockbuster hit The Super Mario Galaxy Movie — was released on PVOD after seven weekends. So where does that leave Disclosure Day’s digital streaming release?
‘Disclosure Day’ Will Likely Have The Seven-Weekend Window Before The Film Hits PVOD
It only makes sense that The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s theatrical-to-PVOD window was extended, given that the film had a very lucrative run in theaters. While the Super Mario sequel didn’t reach the box office heights of The Super Mario Bros. Movie ($575 million domestic, $1.35 billion worldwide), it still was a massive hit ($429 million domestic, $1 billion worldwide).
While Disclosure Day won’t come near to earning what the Super Mario movies made at the domestic or worldwide box office, it’s still a high-profile movie given that it’s directed by Steven Spielberg. Simply put, he’s sort of director who has rightfully earned the clout — like James Cameron and Christopher Nolan — to demand a larger theatrical-to-PVOD window to accommodate theater owners and moviegoers, so it’s quite likely that the film will play on the big screen for seven weekends.
There’s no question that Disclosure Day has a legitimate argument for a bigger theatrical-to-PVOD window, given that it’s delivering much bigger than expected numbers in theaters this weekend. Is it still possible that the film could come out on PVOD after five weekends? Yes, but only if the film has a disastrous slide in its second weekend in theaters akin to Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu. which dropped 69% at the domestic box office in its second frame.
As such, if Disclosure Day follows Universal’s seven-weekend strategy, it should be available on PVOD no later than Tuesday, July 28. If Disclosure Day somehow takes a huge dive at the domestic box office, then it could be available on PVOD after five weekends, which would place the release date on Tuesday, July 7.
When Will ‘Disclosure Day’ Arrive On Peacock?
After its PVOD debut, Disclosure Day will next move on to streaming video on demand on a subscription platform. Since Disclosure Day is a Universal Pictures film, it will first be available on NBC Universal’s SVOD platform Peacock. However, since Universal Pictures changed its theatrical-to-PVOD strategy, a firm pattern of how long it will take the studio’s films to reach Peacock is yet to be established.
The first film released under Universal’s new PVOD strategy was the romantic drama Reminders of Him. Currently, Reminders of Him is scheduled to arrive on Peacock on Friday, July 10, 17 weeks after the film was released in theaters on March 13 and just over 12 weeks after it was released on PVOD on April 14.
If Disclosure Day follows the same release pattern as Reminders of Him, it could arrive on Peacock as early as Friday, Oct. 9. If it takes Disclosure Day longer to debut on PVOD, it is possible that Universal could push the release date back on Peacock as well, meaning it could arrive on the streamer as late as Friday, Oct. 23.
Currently, the only way you can see Disclosure Day is in theaters, so check your local listings for showtimes.