US producer prices were unchanged in February for the first time in seven months, while fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, pointing to a stable economy that should allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady next week.
But the calm painted by the reports from the Labor Department on Thursday could be upended by radical government spending cuts, which have pushed thousands of federal employees out of work, and an escalating trade war stemming from broad import tariffs.
The aggressive policies being pursued by President Trump’s administration have sent business and consumer confidence plummeting, and raised the chances of a recession. US airlines have cut their earnings estimates noting that corporations and consumers were scaling back spending because of mounting economic uncertainty.
“No factory inflation and no worrisome job layoffs either, so there is nothing to slow the economy’s advance for now,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.
“Nevertheless, the radical, buzz-saw cuts in spending and personnel down in Washington could eventually spread to the rest of the private economy in the months to come and it has already created enough uncertainty for company CEOs to potentially halt the economy’s forward progress starting in the second quarter.”
The unchanged reading in the producer price index for final demand last month, the first since July, followed an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in January, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rising 0.3% after a previously reported 0.4% increase in January. In the 12 months through February, the PPI climbed 3.2% after rising 3.7% in January.
But there were unfavorable details in the components that go into the calculation of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price indexes, which are tracked by the central bank for its 2% inflation target. That was similar to the consumer price data on Wednesday.
Goods prices rose 0.3%, with a 53.6% surge in wholesale egg prices accounting for two-thirds of the increase. Goods prices rose 0.6% in January. A raging bird flu outbreak is driving egg prices higher, boosting the cost of food. Wholesale food prices shot up 1.7% after increasing 1.0% in January.
Energy prices fell 1.2%. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, goods prices jumped 0.4% after gaining 0.2% in the prior month. Further gains are likely amid an escalation in trade tensions. President Trump has ignited a trade war, increasing tariffs on goods from China to 20%, with Beijing retaliating with duties of its own.
Trump imposed a new 25% duty on Canadian and Mexican imports, before providing a one-month exemption for goods that meet the rules of origin under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade. Enhanced steel and aluminum tariffs drew swift retaliation from Europe and Canada.
Economists expect the effects of the slew of tariffs by the Trump administration to show in the months ahead.
Services prices fall
The cost of services fell 0.2% amid a 1.4% decline in margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling, after rising 0.6% in January. There were also decreases in the margins for food and alcohol, automobiles and automobile parts as well as apparel, footwear, and accessories retailing.
But prices for hospital inpatient care increased 0.8%. Portfolio management fees rose 0.5%, while airline fares were unchanged. Hotel and motel accommodation prices dipped 0.1%.
Portfolio management fees, healthcare, hotel and motel accommodation and airline fares are among the components that go into the calculation of the core PCE price index.
With the two reports in hand, economists estimated that the PCE price index excluding the volatile food and energy components rose by 0.3% in February, with high odds for a 0.4% increase. Core PCE inflation gained 0.3% in January.
It was forecast rising 2.7% year-on-year after advancing 2.6% in January. The Fed is expected to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range next Wednesday, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September.
Financial markets expect the Fed to resume cutting borrowing costs in June after it paused its easing cycle in January, as the escalation in trade tensions threatens the economic expansion. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to tame inflation.
A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 220,000 for the week ended March 8. Economists had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.
