Are you all in on AI, or are you bracing for an AI-pocalypse?
While Wall Street wagers on skyrocketing profits at artificial intelligence firms and chipmakers alike, regular joes worry about big, noisy, water-hogging data centers – not to mention their jobs. Many, no doubt, have been prompting their chatbots to navigate the latest convulsions.
Yet AI’s future remains largely unknown – even to supposed “experts.” Take the case of Leopold Aschenbrenner – the 25-year-old “Nostradamus of AI” whose high-flying hedge fund Situational Awareness got laid low by its leveraged bets on a bumpy sector.
That notable casualty notwithstanding, the doom-and-gloom AI “bubble” babbling you hear is broadly bogus, as I explained last December. Conversely, buying stocks on grandiose AI speculation and recent IPO hype amounts to peak arrogance.
Indeed, with every prospect ceaselessly vetted – whether it’s a headfake, a conundrum or a once-in-a-generation opportunity – knowing something that others don’t is impossible. Stocks pre-price it all.
AI cassandras warn of fast, vast and tough-to-stomach changes – among them the widely broadcasted “jobpocalypse.” AI is US businesses’ top cited reason for 2026 layoffs. This year’s tech job cuts have already surpassed 2025’s full-year total. Oracle is reportedly eyeing firings next month to offset its huge AI infrastructure debt. That’s after slashing over 20% of its workforce in its latest fiscal year.
Doomsters crucial mistake? Wrongly supposing that innovation destroys but doesn’t at the same time create – an age-old error.
In 1981, economists widely warned that computers would displace workers in droves. What happened instead? Jobs changed, workers learned new skills. Life improved. The ‘80s were pretty good for America’s economy. The ‘90s, too. The pattern permeates history – and will continue to do so.
Thus far, the evidence shows that AI often spurs retraining and expanded hiring, not mass unemployment. Globally, many firms that made AI-driven layoffs are rehiring for similar positions, including IBM and Ford. Why? They vastly underestimated the value of human judgment and oversight.
The reality: AI’s true share of the layoff blame is actually quite tiny. Job-cutting tech firms like Jack Dorsey’s Block – which, citing AI, slashed nearly half its workforce in February – had simply over-hired post-pandemic. AI has become a highly convenient scapegoat.
AI will change some industries greatly – others, less so. Can it improve pizza or duct tape? It may help streamline logistics for transporting and storing them. Beyond that?
Big innovations seldom include either/or scenarios. Food delivery services like Uber Eats and DoorDash surged while grocery and restaurant sales kept growing. Big-box stores changed retailing, then came online retail. Yet small shops still find niches and thrive.
Optimists also overrate the speed of big change. Recall the Internet. First came clunky desktop dial-up. Next, broadband, wireless and affordable laptops. Then smartphones, social media, video conferencing, and mobile payments. It took decades.
In the case of AI, data center electricity and water concerns are real. These limitations, plus political pushback and chip shortages, will slow rollouts globally.
So expect big changes … eventually. Eventually, it will enable young lawyers to ditch rote tasks for more productive work. Eventually, self-driving vehicles will multiply – despite early New York resistance – alleviating truck driver shortages while giving blind and disabled folks previously unfathomable independence.
AI will aid big financials, but replace everyone? No. Customers don’t just want expertise. They also want responsibility. Try holding an AI app liable for your botched taxes. Data privacy is huge, too.
Aging populations need AI’s healthcare efficiencies. Consider abundant new technology detecting falls and vital sign changes, helping families balance work and elder caregiving.
Efficiency is good. But no great company ever changed the world by doing more of the same more efficiently. Great firms find new, unfathomed solutions to problems, bettering our lives. AI’s strength isn’t cutting headcount but augmenting it.
So tune down all the hyperbole and hysteria. Capitalism churns ceaselessly, but the reality is that it progresses more like a tortoise than a hare. And yes – the ride can get bumpy – but it’s basically bullish.
Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.