Let’s start with the obvious: This was entirely predictable when FIFA decided to engage in wishful thinking and schedule knockout phase matches outdoors on the East Coast during the middle of the day.
Temperatures will approach or exceed 100 degrees Farenheit on Saturday in Philadelphia, when France is scheduled to face Paraguay in the round of 16. Those record-breaking conditions aren’t exactly normal for this time of year, but they aren’t exactly unheard of either during the climage change era.
And it only takes a basic understanding of local meteorology to know that 5 p.m. ET, when the match is scheduled to kick off, will be near the very hottest part of the day.
Put bluntly, playing this fixture at its scheduled time will put players, fans and match officials at unnecessary risk. And even for TV viewers in the comfort of their own homes, it will significantly impact the product on the field.
But FIFA can still rectify its own mistake with relatively minimal consequences by premptively delaying kickoff until the evening.
Brutal Conditions Expected At Kickoff
According to weather.com, temperatures could reach 101 degrees Farenheit with 44% humidity. The latter number sounds low, but it’s deceiving because of how hot temperatures increase the air’s ability to retain moisture. It actually suggests a dewpoint level of 76 degrees Farenheit, which is considered above the threshold when even well-conditioned athletes are recommended to take their workouts indoors. The “feels-like factor” or heat index in those conditions will come closer to 110 degrees.
The good news is that, even despite this, conditions would become considerably more playable just by delaying matches a few hours until the evening, when at least the impact of the sun could be mitigated.
Even if temperatures remain warm, the body has less work to do to remain cool when it is only managing air temperature and not sun radiation. Additionally, real temperatures begin to come down. By 9 p.m. ET, temperatures that were above 100 will drop into the still uncomofrtable but more playable mid 90s.
This is something Major League Soccer has understood for years while trying to play a spring-to-fall schedule. In recent seasons, the league has all-but-eliminated matches that kick off before 7:30 p.m. ET local time during the summer months.
Moving Kickoff Would Bring Minor Inconveniences
Yes, moving kickoff would take the match out of the primetime viewing window in Europe, which is no doubt how FIFA arrived at the decision to stage this match at this time in the first place. But playing at 11 p.m. ET French time is already less-than-ideal for European fans. And surely it’s worth moving the match a bit later to make the play on the field better and the environment in the stands more bearable?
Further, delaying kickoff until later in the evening won’t disrupt viewing habits elsewhere. It’s already the final match of the day, and the tournament won’t continue until the following afternoon in East Rutherford, N.J., when temperatures for Brazil vs. Norway are predicted to be more merciful mid-80s.
Looking forward, we’re likely we’re going to be talking about more extreme heat as the tournament progresses, including at the final, which is senselessly scheduled for the middle afternoon hours of July 19 in East Rutherford, N.J.
According to Weatherspark.com, the average hottest day of the year at the venue is July 21, and the average hottest time of the day is between 3 p.m. and 4 p.m. ET. In other words, it’s almost like FIFA literally tried to schedule the match at the most dangerous time possible while ignoring other possible solutions such as playing the final at a more temperate or climate-controlled venue, or playing it at a much later hour local time.
Don’t be surprised if this decision becomes an increasing burden on FIFA as the tournament continues, particularly if another heat wave returns to the Northeast in the middle of the month, a very reasonable possibility.
