Home run props are prone to ups and downs because of their long-shot nature, and the second half of the season has been challenging for the home run bets. The touted home run bets have produced only two winners in the past 20 picks.
Nevertheless, the season’s record sits at 20-77, with three no-bets, which has been good enough to generate $150 in profit for anyone who bet $100 on each of the suggested home run props at the listed odds. Gamblers don’t need many correct home run picks to generate a profit, but tonight’s picks will be the difference between remaining in the black or dipping into the red.
Thankfully, Samuel Basallo and Nathaniel Lowe provide bettors with eye-catching odds to hit home runs in favorable matchups and homer-friendly ballparks tonight.
Friday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
Samuel Basallo (Baltimore Orioles – C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+519) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Samuel Basallo has hit 16 home runs in 88 games and 319 plate appearances this year. The 22-year-old catcher has hit 14 of his 16 home runs against right-handed pitching, 10 at home and eight at home against righties.
The youngster’s batted-ball data is spectacular. Among 246 qualified batters in 2026, Basallo is tied for 31st in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.6%), tied for 30th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.2%), tied for 61st in hard-hit rate (45.6%), tied for 28th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (96.1 mph), tied for 65th in maximum exit velocity (112.5 mph) and tied for 140th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (33.3%).
Basallo has a dreamy matchup tonight. Freddy Peralta has allowed 20 home runs at 1.41 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 25 starts this year. The 30-year-old righty has allowed 15 of his 20 home runs to left-handed batters, 13 of them on the road and 10 on the road to lefties.
Basallo’s chances to hit a home run will also get a lift from taking hacks in his home ballpark tonight. Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks tied for seventh in park factor for home runs (113) since 2025. Getting +519 odds for Basallo’s home run prop feels like a gift.
Nathaniel Lowe (Cleveland Guardians – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+440) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Nathaniel Lowe’s power has kicked up a notch this year, with 14 home runs and a .217 isolated power (ISO) across 317 plate appearances in 2026. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has hit all 14 of his homers in 2026 against right-handed pitching.
Lowe has a 24.5% line-drive rate, 37.8% fly-ball rate, 19.7% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB), 38.8% pull rate and 38.3% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. His batted-ball data isn’t pristine. Still, among 246 qualified hitters this season, Lowe is tied for 102nd in barrels per plate appearance rate (6.0%), tied for 101st in barrels per batted-ball event rate (9.1%) and tied for 22nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (39.2%).
Lowe has a drool-inducing matchup tonight. Tanner Gordon has ceded 15 home runs at 1.89 HR/9 in five starts and 12 relief appearances this year. The 28-year-old righty has allowed 11 home runs to left-handed batters, 13 at home and nine at home to lefties. He has also allowed six home runs in his five starts.
As if the matchup isn’t reason enough to be excited about Lowe’s home run prop, playing in Colorado enhances that excitement. Coors Field has a park factor of 111 for home runs since 2025, ranking ninth in MLB. Lowe can make good on his home run prop, and his +440 odds are alluring.