The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it will leave OPEC effective May 1 – a shocking blow to the world’s largest oil cartel that could help drive down gasoline prices.
Though the Persian Gulf kingdom did not give a reason for its exit, its energy supplies have been severely disrupted amid the Iran war – both by Iranian drone strikes on its facilities and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Its energy minister said Tuesday that it is aiming to achieve 5 million barrels of oil output capacity by 2027, and it would like more freedom in pursuing that goal. OPEC – whose members collaborate to restrict supply and drive prices higher – likely would have stood in the way.
Joe Adamski, managing director of ProcureAbility, a supply chain consultancy, told The Post the extra output could ultimately lower oil prices by $5 to $10 a barrel.
For every dollar of oil price movement, gas prices typically move 3 or 4 cents, according to Jeff Krimmel, founder of Krimmel Strategy Group. That means prices at the pump could drop 40 cents if the UAE ramps up its output.
The UAE “leaving OPEC does significantly weaken OPEC’s position and ability to influence the price of oil globally, so I think overall for consumers, that’s a good thing, as well, because you’re removing that artificial constraint on the market,” Adamski said.
Kenny Zhu, lead energy and commodities researcher at Global X, said the UAE’s exit “represents the most conspicuous exit of a member-state in recent history, given the size and scale of Abu Dhabi’s production.”
“The impact is more likely to be felt by global energy markets over the long-term than in the short-term, since the majority of OPEC’s production remains impaired by ongoing disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz,” Zhu wrote in a note on Tuesday.
Zhu added that the UAE’s exit could increase market volatility and potentially shift market share to the US and Canada.
The UAE joined OPEC in 1967, seven years after the organization was created.
But it has been increasingly trying to leverage its own foreign policy in the Middle East, which has contradicted Saudi Arabia at times – especially as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has begun to directly challenge the Emirates in attracting foreign investments.
“These are the first signs of the long-held stronghold on Middle East oil production beginning to fray,” Gianna Bern, a global energy markets expert and professor at the University of Notre Dame, said in a note Tuesday.
“It exemplifies the UAE’s desire for economic flexibility that is no longer supported by the old OPEC structure. The UAE wants to move to a market based production system and ultimately that will benefit global oil markets.”
However, how long it takes for gasoline prices to fall from the UAE’s exit “is dependent on how long the war lasts and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed,” Adamski told The Post. “So long as that remains closed, they will have difficulty being able to move more oil than they are today.”
The United Arab Emirates currently has the ability to “very quickly ramp up production,” so hitting that new 5 million barrel number is not an issue, Adamski explained.
And it also holds a major advantage in the Port of Fujairah, a huge oil storage hub that sits near the Gulf of Oman, allowing shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz – which has become a critical oil chokepoint in the US and Israel’s war with Iran.
But the rest of the UAE’s oil shipments go through terminals located on the other end of the country, where shipments flow through the Persian Gulf and need access through the strait, Adamski said.
For that reason, Tuesday’s announcement is good news for consumers – but from more of a long-term perspective, according to analysts.
