Yes, an end to the Iran war remains elusive – but that doesn’t mean investors should wait around for it.
What if talks fail? Won’t inflation skyrocket? Shouldn’t I wait for this to pass before buying stocks? Those are key questions I have been getting as this conflict drags on. They’re understandable, but they’re also expensive.
Since my March column, America “double blockaded” the Strait of Hormuz. Yet little changed. The US blockade only affects Iranian exports and imports. Iran’s oil went mostly to China which, by the way, had stocked up beforehand.
Meanwhile, Strait workarounds proliferate. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline exports were under 800,000 barrels per day pre-war. Now, they’re over 5 million. Abu Dhabi’s Fujairah Port exports jumped 40% in March to 1.6 million bpd. Both let Gulf oil circumvent the Strait.
This is true even with jet fuel. Worst-case scenarios of mass cancellations and soaring airfares don’t just assume the Strait won’t open – they hinge on no new supply elsewhere. China is resuming exports. Refiners elsewhere push capacity higher. The EU’s smart move to American kerosene quashes fears of cancelling summer Continental holidays. The world is working.
Non-Gulf energy producers also are pumping more. April US oil exports hit all-time records. Venezuela is ramping up shipping. Countries reliant on Qatari natural gas – like South Korea and Italy – are buying more from America and Australia. Asian nations are refiring coal power plants. Shortages will be short-lived.
What about Tehran’s tolls? Some fear Iran charging $1 per barrel – roughly $2 million per ship to pass through Hormuz. But marginal gulf oil production costs average about $20 per barrel. Another dollar isn’t much. Note, also, a Japanese tanker passed tollfree on April 29. Will more?
If Iran successfully implements a pay-for-passage plan, and somehow jolts prices, it is temporary. Higher prices would spur even more production globally. Soon, supply and demand via added supply lowers prices. It always does.
This also defangs inflation fears. Yes, April US consumer inflation hit 3.8% versus a year ago as fuel costs soared. But this doesn’t foretell 2022-style pain. Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman proved eons ago that inflation is always and everywhere derived from excess money creation. US M4, the broadest money measure, is up 5.8% year-over-year, matching pre-pandemic rates and far below the COVID era’s 30%-plus that fueled 2022’s white-hot inflation.
Absent far bigger money supply growth, higher energy prices simply spur substitution. More spent on irreplaceable fuel, less on replaceable goods, which yes – is hard on luxury firms. No fun, but it doesn’t boost inflation or hit GDP – it just rearranges both. And only slightly: Energy totals 6% of America’s consumer price basket – percents of percents at most.
Some fear other pass-throughs – like surging petrochemical feedstock prices used to create plastics and fertilizers – lifting all sorts of prices. That isn’t happening. Excluding energy and food, April’s US goods prices increased 1.1% versus last year – a downtick from March’s 1.2% and flat to January and February’s readings. Meanwhile, truck convoys are conveying stuck fertilizer from the Gulf region, easing shortages.
Why shouldn’t you wait to own stocks until after all the chaos cools? Because markets never wait for clarity. Consider 2022. US stocks bottomed in October. The Ukraine war continued to rage. US inflation was 9.1%. The Fed was hiking rates. Gloom reigned. But stocks pre-priced a better future – long before most people fathomed it. Just as they did with COVID and after last year’s tariff shock.
It is happening again. Stocks’ return to all-time highs isn’t fake. This is how rebounds look. Stocks rise before emotions calm. Fear is costly for seekers of clarity.
More gut-wrenching gyrations may come. But markets don’t stress daily developments for long. So, lift your gaze from the daily headlines about the blockades, the threats and the on-again, off-again talks. Look further out, just like stocks do.
Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.