The dog days of the summer have almost entirely eaten away at the profits for the MLB best home run bets this season. Sadly, Yordan Alvarez and Jac Caglianone didn’t homer on Wednesday, running the cold streak to 12 straight picks. The season’s record for home run bets now sits at 18-71, with three no-bets.
Long-shot bets are a blast when cashing them, but they’re also prone to extended droughts, and the MLB best home run bets are mired in a nasty one. Anyone who has bet $100 on each of the suggested home run props at the listed odds has profited only $61, an unsatisfying number but still better than being in the red.
Two left-handed slugging teammates in their homer-friendly ballpark today have a drool-inducing matchup. Both players have an excellent opportunity to reach the seats, making their home run bets the best on Saturday’s MLB slate.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Kyle Schwarber (Philadelphia Phillies – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+230) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Kyle Schwarber is in the hunt for the 2026 MLB home run crown, sitting in a four-way tie in second place with 33 homers. The 33-year-old masher has hit 21 homers against right-handed pitching, 20 at home and 16 at home against right-handed pitching.
The veteran slugger has high-quality batted-ball data. Among 250 qualified hitters in 2026, he is tied for 38th in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.4%), seventh in barrels per batted-ball event rate (17.1%), 15th in hard-hit rate (52.1%), tied for ninth in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.5 mph), tied for 48th in maximum exit velocity (113.2 mph), 22nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (40.0%) and ninth in steepest launch angle (21.5 degrees).
Schwarber has the best matchup against a starting pitcher on today’s MLB slate to hit a home run. Max Scherzer’s 2.64 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) in 2026 are the most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Toronto’s bullpen isn’t bulletproof, either, allowing 1.00 HR/9 this season.
The park factors are also ideal for Schwarber. Citizens Bank Park’s 126 park factor for homers for left-handed batters since 2025 ranks second. Schwarber has a chalky +230 line to hit a home run, but it’s not as chalky as it should be, making it a compelling home run prop to end the dry spell.
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+300) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Bryce Harper has smashed 24 home runs this year, belting 20 against right-handed pitching, 12 at home and 10 at home against right-handed pitching. Like his aforementioned teammate, he has a dreamy matchup and excellent park factors to hit a home run today.
I sandbagged some numbers on Scherzer. The 42-year-old righty has allowed nine homers in eight starts this season, permitting at least one in five turns and coughing up multiple home runs in three. In addition, Scherzer has allowed six of his nine home runs to left-handed batters this year.
Harper has the power and the caliber of batted-ball data needed to take advantage of his matchup and park factors today. Among 250 qualified batters this year, Harper is tied for 58th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.4%), tied for 63rd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (11.5%), 72nd in hard-hit rate (44.9%), tied for 66th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (94.7 mph), 43rd in maximum exit velocity (113.5 mph), tied for 48th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (37.5%) and has a 12.7-degree launch angle.
Scherzer is homer-prone enough to cough up home runs to both Schwarber and Harper. Thus, Harper’s +300 odds to hit a home run are also appealing. Finally, the weather forecast is warm in Philadelphia, with the wind slightly blowing out to right field, further enhancing the chances of Schwarber and Harper hitting home runs.
