The MLB best home run bets are in a small funk. Since Bryce Harper and Ozzie Albies hit home runs on July 20, four straight MLB best home run bets have failed to deliver. So, the season’s record for MLB best home run bets sits at 18-63, with three no-bets.
The record is rock-solid for a long-shot bet, like home run bets. As a result, anyone who has bet $100 on each of the touted home run props at the listed odds has profited $861. Again, home run bets are long-shot wagers, so losing streaks are part of the equation.
There are two appealing home run bets on today’s MLB slate, though. A young left-handed-hitting outfielder in a plus matchup and homer-friendly ballpark and a young right-handed-hitting outfielder in a favorable matchup and homer-friendly ballpark have the most compelling home run bets on today’s MLB slate.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Chase DeLauter (Cleveland Guardians – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+338) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Chase DeLauter has hit 11 home runs in 91 games and 380 plate appearances in his rookie campaign, drilling nine against righties, eight on the road and seven against right-handed pitching on the road.
The 24-year-old left-handed-hitting outfielder has decent batted-ball data this year. Among 253 qualified hitters in 2026, DeLauter is tied for 142nd in barrels per plate appearance rate (5.1%), tied for 157th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (6.7%), tied for 64th in hard-hit rate (45.4%), tied for 58th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.0 mph), tied for 103rd in maximum exit velocity (111.2 mph), tied for 102nd in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (35.0%) and has a 13.4-degree launch angle. DeLauter’s ability to barrel the ball could use work, but he hits the ball hard when he rips fly balls and line drives.
The outfielder has a desirable matchup tonight. Brady Singer’s 1.83 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) are the third-most among today’s probable starting pitchers. Singer has surrendered 15 of 21 home runs this year to left-handed batters, 10 at home and five at home to left-handed batters. The 29-year-old righty has allowed a 20.8% line-drive rate, 40.6% fly-ball rate, 18.8% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 40.9% pull rate to left-handed batters this season.
DeLauter’s likelihood of hitting a home run also gets a lift from hitting at Great American Ballpark tonight, which ranks tied for eighth in park factor for home runs (112) since 2025. DeLauter can take advantage of his matchup and the park factors to launch a home run tonight at inviting +338 odds.
Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners – OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+302) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Julio Rodriguez isn’t having an eye-popping season at the plate, hitting just 16 home runs in 419 plate appearances. Still, J-Rod has hit eight homers against lefties this season, and he’s hit 24 home runs against lefties since 2024.
Rodriguez’s setup is nearly perfect to hit a home run tonight. Eric Lauer’s 2.20 HR/9 this season is the second-most among today’s probable starting pitchers. The lefty has allowed 20 home runs in 13 starts and three relief appearances this year, permitting four in his previous three games, allowing at least one in each of those turns. Lauer has allowed at least one home run in 14 appearances this year and ceded multiple homers in five appearances.
The southpaw has been dreadful against right-handed batters. Lauer has allowed 16 home runs, 2.19 HR/9, a 53.3%, 15.6% line-drive rate, 53.3% fly-ball rate and 14.2% HR/FB to right-handed batters this season.
Rodriguez will get a lift from the park factors tonight, too. UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium has the highest park factor for home runs (127) since 2025. Finally, the weather projects to be warm, and the wind is expected to blow out to right field tonight. As a result, Rodriguez has an opportunity to home again tonight after doing so last night.
