Crime in the Big Apple isn’t “down” no matter how many times you read those headlines – but the city’s business community can’t seem to let go of the fantasy, On The Money has learned.
Leaders of our business class are touting declines of certain crimes as proof that the city is safe for workers and entrepreneurs. And to be fair, it’s partly true: Murders are down nearly 50% over the past 16 years, and almost 34% lower than they were just two years ago.
Shootings, meanwhile, are down around 27% from two years ago and down more than 50% since 2012, which would have been the final years of Mike Bloomberg’s mayoral stint.
But that’s not the whole story. Felonious assault complaints are nearly 77% higher than 16 years ago, and about 1% higher than just two years back. Transit crime continues to escalate; it’s 7% higher than 2010 and 1.2% over the past two years. While grand larceny has recently fallen, it’s still 22% above its Bloomberg levels.
And here’s where things get downright scary: Rapes are up 4.6% over the past year, and hate crimes more than 6%.
The contradiction was recently brought to my attention by a top litigator at a big Manhattan law firm who served in the Justice Department under George W. Bush and who knows his way around NYPD’s so-called CompStat crime reports that get published weekly.
“The city also has two glaring problems: an epidemic of rape and hate crimes AKA criminal antisemitism,” my source tells me. “Over the past two years, rape is up more than 30%, and 73% since 2010.”
“Yes, the murder rate has dramatically declined. Ditto shooting incidents,” he added. “But those figures only tell part of the story.”
To be clear, I get why city business leaders are looking at the proverbial glass half filled. It’s no fun running a company under the yoke of Zohran Mamdani’s incompetent, socialist mayoralty that seeks to tax anything that moves to fund his ever-growing welfare state.
Looking at the bright side of crime numbers is also a great way to persuade more businesses from fleeing to places where the homeless don’t crowd our sidewalks and you don’t get mugged when taking the family to dinner.
But a more realistic crunching of the numbers suggests that business leaders are merely looking for silver linings in numbers that still show New York is a dangerous place to live and do business in.
On The Money is all mostly about money, of course, but crime has traditionally been one of the biggest headwinds for the economy of the city. Faulty budgeting was the root cause of the city’s financial crisis and near bankruptcy of the 1970s, but the huge uptick in crime caused millions of middle class, tax-paying New Yorkers to flee to the suburbs.
Likewise, the strides against crime made by Rudy Giuliani when he was mayor and carried over during the Bloomberg years saw a business renaissance here in the city. Taxpayers were moving to the city, not fleeing, as the recent “millionaire exodus” study published by the Citizens Budget Commission pointed out.
Steve Fulop, the CEO of the Partnership for NYC, the city’s leading business advocacy group, tells me “crime statistics don’t move in a straight line, but the multiyear trend remains favorable, and murder, the most serious indicator of overall trend, is down.
“Beyond the numbers, business sentiment on public safety is also positive, which reflects the job Commissioner Tisch is doing and her regular, direct engagement with our members.”
It’s hard to dispute that NYPD chief Jessica Tisch is doing yeoman’s work despite some formidable obstacles, including a mayor who thinks sidewalk homelessness is a right and local DAs who believe the best way to reduce crime is to no longer enforce the laws. Let’s not forget that Jay Clayton, President Trump’s US Attorney for the Southern District of Manhattan has also embarked on a sweeping crackdown on violent criminals here in the city and it’s having an impact.
That said, the numbers don’t lie. NYC is a dangerous place, and the question business people will be asking increasingly: Is it worth the cost of doing business here?