California could lose as many as 58,000 jobs and more than $21 billion annually if Paramount follows through on a threat to move its headquarters and operations out of the state amid a widening antitrust fight over its Warner Bros. Discovery takeover, according to a new economic analysis.
The preliminary report by the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp.’s Institute for Applied Economics examines the fallout if Paramount abandons California after a coalition of 12 Democratic state attorneys general, led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta, sued to block the merger.
The report was first obtained by Politico.
Absent a deal, Paramount has indicated it would be compelled to move its headquarters and thousands of jobs out of California beginning Oct. 1, potentially to Georgia, Tennessee or Texas, the analysis said.
The stakes could be enormous.
A full relocation of Paramount’s California operations would result in the permanent loss of between 28,990 and 57,980 full-time jobs statewide, including direct jobs and employment supported through vendors and household spending, according to the report.
California could also lose between $10.6 billion and $21.2 billion in annual economic output, while state and local tax revenue could fall by roughly $585 million to $1.17 billion a year.
“Rob Bonta wants to play antitrust crusader while California jobs hang in the balance,” state GOP Chairwoman Corrin Rankin told The Post.
“If Paramount walks and thousands of jobs go with it, he won’t get to blame Hollywood, the buck stops with him. Stop grandstanding, negotiate the protections, and make the deal,” Rankin continued.
The report stressed that those figures represent a worst-case scenario based on assumptions about Paramount’s California footprint because the company does not publicly break out operating expenses or employment by state.
Paramount reported about $19.7 billion in operating expenses in 2025, according to the analysis.
LAEDC assumed that between 30% and 60% of those expenses — roughly $5.9 billion to $11.8 billion annually — are tied to economic activity in California.
Even a slower pullback could deliver a sizable hit.
If Paramount reduced California spending to help offset roughly $1.88 billion in merger-related ticking fees and financing costs, and spread those reductions evenly over five years, the state could lose between 550 and 1,110 job-years — the equivalent of that many full-time jobs lasting one year — annually and between $202.7 million and $405.4 million in yearly economic output, according to the analysis.
The threat comes as Paramount faces mounting pressure to get its WBD deal over the finish line.
The states sued July 13 alleging the combination would reduce competition in wide-release theatrical films, anticipated top-grossing films and the licensing of basic cable channels.
They are seeking to permanently block the merger under the Clayton Act — the century-old federal antitrust law used to block mergers that may substantially reduce competition.
That puts the states at odds with the Justice Department, which closed its own investigation in June without suing to stop the transaction after concluding it was not likely to harm competition in streaming, linear television or theatrical film development, production and distribution.
The merger agreement also raises the financial pressure on Paramount as the calendar approaches October.
The agreement provides for additional payments to WBD shareholders if the deal closes after Sept. 30, while the LAEDC report estimates those so-called ticking fees at about $7 million a day beginning Oct. 1.
Paramount has offered to guarantee 30 theatrical releases a year from the combined company as part of its effort to resolve the dispute, according to the LAEDC report.
LAEDC estimated that commitment could generate between 1,020 and 2,760 job-years in California and between $377.7 million and $1.01 billion in statewide economic output over five years.
“California is the fourth largest economy in the world and the best place to do business,” Bonta’s office said in a statement.
“Strong antitrust enforcement is essential so everyone can benefit from a vibrant economy.”
The attorney general’s office added that “When companies create a monopoly and illegally use that power to get out of negotiating, that hurts our economy, it hurts Californians, it makes things more expensive, and it makes things worse.”
A Paramount spokesperson declined to comment.