The path to the CFP among non-power conference teams in 2026 will be a more congested one with a revamped Pac-12 up and running. Hence, the precious lone automatic bid will come from a group of six instead of five.
In addition, playoff modifications for the coming season make for a repeat of 2025, when two non-powers (No. 20 Tulane and No. 23 James Madison) made the 12-team field, much more difficult. One of the changes – call it the ACC Rule, if you will — is that each of the four power conference champs are in regardless of ranking. Also, Notre Dame will be included if it is ranked in the top 12, and the top-ranked Group of Six team – not necessarily a conference champ – is guaranteed a spot in the playoff.
Had such a format been in place last season, ACC champ Duke and the No. 11 Fighting Irish would have made the cut instead of James Madison and No. 10 Miami.
As for the Pac-12, the conference all but entirely dissolved following the 2023 season. Oregon State and Washington State served as inn keepers the past two years while maintaining a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West Conference. Speaking of which, five schools from the MWC and one from the Sun Belt will officially join Oregon State and Washington State on July 1 in a Pac-12 that will be an eight-team league for football.
Boise State Favored Among G6
Because Boise State is one of the teams joining the Pac-12 from the Mountain West, the new-look conference is instantly one to be reckoned with when it comes to a seat of the CFP table. Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State also join the Pac-12 from the MWC while Texas State makes its way from the Sun Belt.
While there are still two months until preseason camp, which could answer a few questions or yield more of them, Boise State would seem to be the clear favorite in the Pac-12. The next tier is a cluster of Fresno State, San Diego State, Washington State and perhaps Texas State. While each of those teams may look pretty good on one side of the ball, they are loaded with uncertainty on the other side.
Boise State’s shot at a second straight playoff appearance in 2025 was largely scuttled thanks to a season-opening thumping (34-7) in Tampa against USF. Though coach Spencer Danielson went three-for-three in delivering Mountain West titles, there was a sense of disappointment in a 9-5 campaign that concluded much the same way it began. Indeed, being blown out (38-10) by Washington in the LA Bowl was not a fun way to end the season. For the record, the Broncos’ five losses – USF, Notre Dame, Fresno State, San Diego and UW – were by a combined 147-38.
Danielson needs a healthy and more consistent Maddux Madsen at quarterback in 2026. The redshirt senior was 62nd nationally in pass efficiency during an injury-marred (leg) season that saw him miss three-plus games in November before returning for the MWC title game.
The Broncos had only two players with as many as 400 yards receiving last season, though eight had at least 250. The leading returning wideouts are Ben Ford (325 yards, 5 TDs), who missed half the season due to injury, and Cameron Bates (302 yards). Dylan Riley (1,125 yards, 12 total TDs) and Sire Gaines (811, 9) return at running back and though two horses (Kage Casey, Mason Randolph) on the line need to be replaced, there is ample starting experience.
On the other side of scrimmage, edge Jayden Virgin-Morgan (13 TFL, 6 sacks) is the headliner. Erik Chinander’s unit lost three starting defensive backs, though there is experience returning, including the lone returning starter among the DBs, nickel Jaden Mickey. Corners Sherrod Smith and Demetrius Freener, Jr. each started two games last season, so the cupboard is far from bare.
Broncos fans should learn quite a bit about their team early. There is a season-opening trip to Oregon – Boise State has lost 10 straight to power conference opponents, including 37-34 in Eugene in 2024 – followed by what will be a potentially key G6 encounter with Memphis at Albertsons Stadium.
