Travelers could soon see summer air travel tickets jump by more than $100 as the oil economy continues to reel from the war on Iran, sending jet fuel prices sky-high, The Post has learned.
Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz – which typically sees 20% of the world’s oil supply pass through – has sent major oil benchmarks above $100 a barrel and pushed national average gasoline prices to their highest level since October 2023.
The historic energy disruption has had the same impact on jet fuel, which hit $3.99 a gallon on Friday — just ahead of the busy summer travel season — according to the Argus US Jet Fuel Index.
“Prices have gone absolutely crazy in the markets,” Michael Taylor, practice lead for travel at JD Power, told The Post – nodding to sharp swings in crude oil prices last week.
“I would expect to see a triple-digit impact on tickets depending on how much the airline is willing to absorb and what the competitive marketplace looks like.”
Jet-setters could see more of an impact on long-haul international flights, which burn more fuel than shorter flights – while many trips have been extended as airlines reroute flights around parts of the Middle East to avoid strikes.
Some international airlines use a strategy known as fuel hedging to lock in fuel price futures months or even years in advance, but most US airlines have abandoned the practice.
“Any shock to the system kind of works its way in and out in days, not even weeks. They do adjust very, very quickly,” Taylor told The Post.
Airlines outside the US – including Cathay Pacific, Air France-KLM, Air India, Hong Kong Airlines and FlySafair – have already announced higher fuel surcharges on flight tickets.
Most US-based airlines, however, typically opt to raise the overall price of a ticket instead of tacking on surcharges – and those higher prices are already showing up online.
“They’re seeing it in advanced ticket purchases now. I have seen some crazy prices for summer travel,” including a $900 round-trip ticket to Orlando, Fla., in June from JFK Airport, Taylor told The Post.
Added fees for checked bags, extra legroom and priority seating have the largest impact on consumer satisfaction, according to JD Power data, so airlines will likely try to avoid hiking those prices.
With no clear end to the Iran war in sight and swings in oil benchmarks expected to continue, it’s difficult to advise whether customers should snap up tickets now or wait, Taylor said – adding that it’s “like playing the market.”
Even if the conflict ends soon, prices could remain higher for longer as major oil producers like Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have started paring back output — and as Iran has reportedly begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump has urged allies help protect tankers from Iranian attacks in the channel as oil vessels have come under attack.
The commander-in-chief has also hinted at additional strikes on Kharg Island after saying US attacks on the vital Iranian oil hub over the weekend targeted military infrastructure, not energy equipment.
The site contains Iran’s main oil export hub, so a direct strike could further worsen supply disruptions and significantly ramp up geopolitical tensions.
