Talent is the driving force of success in the NBA. It only goes so far in the playoffs when matchups play a huge part in how a series unfolds. The New York Knicks and the San Antonio Spurs were not the pick of most analysts to make it to the championship series back in April, but here they stand now ready to take on the other in a heavyweight battle. So much build up to the event leads to tons of analysis and worthy questions about strengths, weaknesses and advantages. Here are three questions that may weigh heavily in determining who will eventually emerge as the victor:
Who will be the weaker shooter: Wembanyama or Hart?
It’s an interesting dichotomy to view a series through the lens of two average shooters, but the effectiveness of both will likely dictate a large part of this series. Josh Hart just finished a regular season in which he drained over 41 percent of his looks from deep, which ranked 16th best in the NBA. He just came off of a series in which he proved the doubters wrong by draining nine treys. Yet, the Spurs will likely allow him to take those same shots time and time again. Forcing the Knicks offense to be overly reliant on Hart’s shooting can be detrimental to the team for multiple reasons.
A snapshot of the 1st half against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a perfect reason for why this could be problematic. Jarrett Allen is the primary defender on Hart and completely abandons him in the corner. Even though OG Anunoby has an advantage with James Harden guarding him he finds himself walled off by Allen camping out in the lane. That forces Anunoby to kick it out to Hart at the 3-point line and he puts up the shot after a late contest from Allen.
That shot will be available for the Knicks and it will be up to Hart to nail them. Failure to do so will allow Wembanyama to run rampant in the paint. New York currently has taken the highest percentage of their shots at the rim for teams that have played in the playoffs. Being put in a position where they have to drive at a clogged lane could gum up the offense and force them into disadvantageous situations.
Wembanyama has had some legendary performances during the postseason and his success will always be driven by his high octane efficiency at the rim. He has shown an ability to separate from other big men by becoming a legitimate threat from deep. The Spurs have lost only two out of the twelve playoff games that Wemby has hit at least one trey. The irony is that the ideal defense the Knicks have to play may be to occasionally leave Wembanyama because of his proficiency inside the paint. The Spurs will put themselves in a great position to take the series if the big man can be a factor from deep.
Are the youngsters ready for the bright lights?
This is kind of a silly question because Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have shown countless times over the past two months that they are ready for this moment. Castle has upped his efficiency during the playoffs by posting a 54.5 effective field goal percentage, which is a tick higher than what he was able to shoot during the regular season. He’s done all this while distributing at the same high level that he has shown during the regular season. Castle has had a few games in which he’s gotten a little sloppy with the ball, which could be crucial for the Knicks. The lifeblood of their offense is forcing turnovers and scoring easy transition points as they are sitting atop the NBA leaderboard in the playoffs for scoring efficiency in transition. New York may become even more reliant on taking advantage of those opportunities with the defensive player of the year casting a shadow in the paint. The Spurs have survived the games in which Castle has been loose with the ball, but that feels like a recipe for failure on this big of a stage.
Which bench player will emerge as the difference maker?
Playoffs allow for the moments to live on for more than just a moment. The bench can be the place where you get superstar performances, which can be enough to turn a series. Keldon Johnson just won the sixth man of the year award and has plenty of promise for how he can impact this series. The Knicks are dynamite at limiting opponents from being able to nab offensive rebounds. This has been where Johnson has thrived, especially in the playoffs where he has accumulated 24 offensive boards in just 12 games. These extra possessions could prove monumental, especially since the Spurs, as a whole, are not great at generating extra possessions.
Johnson will also have to become the finisher that fans in Texas have come to know and love. He has shot poorly from the field in the playoffs– sporting a disappointing 46.2 effective field goal percentage during the playoffs. Upping his effectiveness will give the Spurs the boost on the bench that they’ve come to expect.
The answer to how to solve the spacing concerns of the Knicks has traditionally been a simple one: play Deuce McBride. He has a quick, high release that allows him to get off shot attempts whenever it is needed. He attempted nine 3-point attempts per 36 minutes during the season and canned 41.3 percent of those looks. His talent is undeniable and all you have to do is look at the Game 4 blowout against the Philadelphia 76ers as evidence of how he can supercharge a team’s offense.
Landry Shamet has taken on some of those minutes that McBride has occupied, but this series may be more in McBride’s wheelhouse. The lift he gets on his shot may be needed with the Spurs able to give strong, late contests. Shamet has only shot 31 percent on looks where he is not completely wide open from the 3-point line versus McBride who shot 41.0 percent on those shots with even more attempts. It’s likely that the Knicks will have fewer open looks in this series, and that should lead to a heavy reliance on shooters that can pour it in from deep with a hand in their face. The five out lineup with McBride in place of Hart has a 132.4 offensive rating during the regular season…it should not be a look that Brown should hesitate to use if push comes to shove.
