A Las Vegas casino abruptly pulled the plug on a prediction market conference over fears the event could draw scrutiny from Nevada gambling regulators, according to a report.
Predict 2026 had been slated for the Aria on the Strip before the MGM-operated resort canceled the booking just days after signing the agreement.
‘The [Aria] is issuing this notice in light of Nevada’s current regulatory and enforcement position regarding prediction markets,’ a lawyer for the resort wrote in a termination letter cited by Barron’s.
The dispute highlights escalating tensions between state gambling regulators and prediction market firms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, which let people bet on the outcomes of all kinds of events.
Nevada regulators have taken an especially aggressive stance toward the fast-growing sector, arguing that some sports-event contracts resemble unlicensed wagering that bypasses state gaming rules and taxes.
Last October, the Nevada Gaming Control Board warned casino license holders that maintaining ties to prediction market operators could factor into whether they remain eligible for gaming licenses.
“If a Nevada licensee chooses to offer Sports and Other Event Contracts in Nevada or decides to partner with other entities offering Sports and Other Event Contracts in the state, the Board will consider these developments as it evaluates the suitability of the entity to maintain a Nevada gaming license,” regulators said in the guidance cited by Barron’s.
While Predict 2026 was not sponsored by any prediction market company, Aria’s legal notice indicated that regulators had become increasingly sensitive even to indirect promotion of the industry.
The Aria, which opened in 2009 and is operated by MGM Resorts after being sold to Blackstone in 2021, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The showdown highlights the widening divide between traditional casino operators and the new entrants into the prediction market space.
Legacy gaming giants such as MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment have largely stayed away from prediction markets even as companies including DraftKings have launched competing platforms to challenge businesses like Kalshi.
Prediction market operators insist that their event contracts are federally regulated financial instruments overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing them to operate nationwide for users over 18.
Some state gaming regulators, however, have argued that sports-related contracts closely resemble sports betting and should fall under state gambling laws.
Nevada officials have already taken direct legal action against Kalshi.
The Nevada Gaming Commission sued the company over its sports event contracts, and the platform was briefly barred from operating in the state earlier this year, according to Barron’s.
The Post has sought comment from Polymarket, Aria and the Nevada Gaming Control Board.
