The US stock market sank Wednesday after nearly half the policymakers at the Federal Reserve indicated they may want to raise interest rates before the end of the year. Higher rates can keep a lid on inflation, but they also slow the economy and hurt prices for investments.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average went from a gain of 281 points in the morning to a drop of 507 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite sank 1.4%.
The S&P 500 slumped 1.2% and erased an earlier, modest gain after the Fed released projections showing nine of 18 policymakers see the central bank raising its main interest rate at least once this year.
One important policymaker at the Fed did not give a forecast for where the federal funds rate may end 2026 and the next couple years: Chairman Kevin Warsh. In his first press conference as head of the central bank, Warsh said he’s also considering a revamp of how the Fed communicates with the market and US households and businesses.
That includes the end of dropping hints in Fed statements about where interest rates may be heading in the future, something called “forward guidance.”
Warsh said he wants Wall Street to react to incoming data about inflation, the job market and other economic data based on how they affect prices for stocks, bonds and other investments rather than how it expects the Federal Reserve to react to them.
As part of that, Warsh said the Fed could make changes in its usual release of projections every three months showing where Fed officials suspect interest rates, the economy and inflation are heading in upcoming years.
For now, though, Wall Street reacted uneasily to Fed officials’ latest set of projections. Stocks zigzagged up and down several times following the release. The Fed also decided to keep the federal funds rate steady at this meeting, as it has all year so far.
In the bond market, Treasury yields climbed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury, which influences rates for mortgages and other loans going to US households and businesses, rose to 4.48% from 4.43% late Tuesday. The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for Fed action, jumped more. It climbed to 4.20% from 4.05%.
High yields in bond markets worldwide caused by worries about inflation have been threatening to slow economies and undercut prices for all kinds of investments.