The MLB best home run bets haven’t had a winner since last week. The season’s record has slid to 13-46, with three no-bets. Home run props are challenging, and losing streaks are part of the equation.
Having said that, home run bets are priced accordingly. Gamblers don’t need to win many home run props to generate a profit. Despite the lackluster record, the MLB best home run bets have generated $927 in profits for anyone who’s bet $100 on each of them at the listed odds.
Today is another opportunity to cash home run bets and add to the season’s profits. A veteran left-handed slugger in a plus matchup and a right-handed hitter in a tasty matchup have the most appealing home run bets today.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Bryce Harper (Philadelphia Phillies – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+314) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryce Harper is raking this season. Harper has drilled 17 home runs, smacking 14 in 197 plate appearances against righties and seven in 93 plate appearances against righties on the road in 2026.
He has blistering batted-ball data. Among 257 qualified batters this season, Harper is tied for 42nd in barrels per plate appearance rate (8.3%), tied for 49th in barrels per batted-ball event rate (12.5%), 66th in hard-hit rate (45.4%), tied for 58th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.0 mph), 37th in maximum exit velocity (113.5 mph) and tied for 44th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (38.0%).
Harper also has an 11.8-degree launch angle, 19.9% line-drive rate, 37.0% fly-ball rate, 21.3% home run per fly-ball rate (HR/FB) and 40.3% pull rate.
The 33-year-old slugger has a drool-inducing matchup today. Among today’s probable starters, Miles Mikolas has the second-highest home runs allowed per nine innings (1.95 HR/9). In addition, Washington’s bullpen’s 1.36 HR/9 is the fourth-highest mark.
Revisiting Mikolas, he has allowed eight home runs to 178 left-handed batters this year, and he’s allowed at least one home run in nine of 16 appearances this season, including surrendering multiple homers in four appearances.
Harper will also get a homer boost from the park factors. Nationals Park has a park factor of 104 for homers since 2025, ranking 13th. The weather might also provide him a lift, since the forecast is warm, and the wind projects to blow lightly out to right field. Harper should make the most of his matchup and hitting conditions and hit a home run today.
Willson Contreras (Boston Red Sox – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+280) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Kyle Freeland has served up 14 home runs at 1.91 HR/9 in 14 appearances this season, ceding at least one in eight appearances. The 33-year-old lefty has allowed 13 home runs to 243 right-handed batters this season.
Willson Contreras is a righty in Boston’s lineup who is capable of taking Freeland deep. Contreras has hit 16 homers in 313 plate appearances this year, with a career-high 16.9-degree launch angle, 20.0% line-drive rate, 40.0% fly-ball rate, 21.6% HR/FB and 55.1% pull rate. Contreras has hit five home runs in 74 plate appearances against lefties in 2026 and three homers in 32 plate appearances against lefties on the road.
Contreras has above-average batted-ball data, too. Among 257 qualified hitters this year, Contreras is tied for 54th in barrels per plate appearance rate (7.8%), tied for 42nd in barrels per batted-ball event rate (13.0%), tied for 77th in hard-hit rate (44.9%), tied for 45th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (95.4 mph), tied for 42nd in maximum exit velocity (113.2 mph) and tied for 161st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (32.4%).
Contreras will get a pick-me-up from Coors Field’s 106 park factor for home runs since 2025. Moreover, the forecast calls for warm weather and the wind blowing out to left field. Contreras justifiably has a chalky line for his home run prop, but he should deliver the goods and hit one.
